AGRICULTURE Minister Nick Brown said today that figures showing new outbreaks of foot and mouth should show signs of dropping by the end of this week - a pronouncement everyone hopes will be correct but one which is being taken with a large pinch on salt in many rural areas.

In the meantime, residents of Askrigg in Wensleydale are furious that slaughtered cattle have been left rotting in the fields for up to ten days - and their blood has been allowed to leach into the River Ure with potentially disastrous effects.

Mr Brown has always shown a great optimism throughout the crisis - on March 12, he claimed the outbreak was past its peak after 139 reported cases, a figure which has soared almost tenfold in less than a month.

He continued in optimistic mood today by saying Government epidemiologists were forecasting that the figures would show a "a meaningful trend downwards" by the end of the week - probably too late for thousands of tourist-trade businesses facing their bleakest Easter for years.

Adding to scepticism about the accuracy of his forecasts is the fact that over the weekend, there were 29 more cases before today's latest figures are released. Even more worrying, two had appeared in parts of Wales and Scotland many miles from existing cases, suggesting that the virus is still being spread by as yet unknown causes.

Other developments include:

• The devastation caused to non-farming rural businesses this Easter was graphically illustrated by a survey carried out by the NFU Countryside, an affiliate of the farmers' union. It showed that almost two thirds of people planning country breaks over the holiday had cancelled - and the total in projected losses could reach £5 billion by September.

• Pleas by the Prime Minister that more county councils re-open footpaths and bridleways to walkers fell largely on deaf ears. Buckinghamshire, home to Chequers, Mrs Blair's official country home, refused and, as we reported last week, North Yorkshire County Council will keep all its footpaths closed until further notice.

• The row over vaccination of livestock near confirmed outbreaks continues despite the fact the Government has announced it would be used only as a last resort. Farmers are split down the middle on vaccination but it should be used now to create disease "firebreaks," says the Small and Family Farms Alliance.